Strategic Resources That Define Our Future

When I stood before brigadier generals and colonels from Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Jordan, Qatar, and Brunei at the National Resilience Centre of PUSPAHANAS, the focus was not on tanks or tactics. It was on the fragile nexus of water, food, and energy—the natural frontlines of resilience. Their presence, uniforms, and composure fostered an atmosphere of discipline and gravitas. These were not the usual conference delegates or corporate leaders I often meet. The military leaders can instantly discern how the control and flow of resources shape a nation's stability and sovereignty.

From Abundance to Scarcity

For decades, Malaysia has enjoyed relative abundance. Our clean rivers flowed freely, our soils produced rice and fruit, and revenues from oil and gas underwrote our affordable energy. However, abundance can lead to complacency – or a resource curse, according to economists. When a nation grows too comfortable with its natural wealth, it often overlooks the slow-moving risks that threaten it - from environmental degradation to the changing climate. Global warming, as manifested in changing rainfall patterns, together with increasing global resource demand, is threatening the very foundations of this prosperity. Malaysia in 2100 is likely to experience a temperature increase of anywhere from 1.9 to 2.1 degrees Celsius, a shift that will test our ability to safeguard national resilience.

The tell-tale signs are many. Water stress is increasing in industry and for household use. Five states in Peninsular Malaysia are water-deficient. Food security, once taken for granted, is now vulnerable to import shocks and volatile commodity prices. Energy, traditionally based on fossil fuels, faces transition risks and requires a shift to cleaner sources. These pressures are not isolated; in fact, they interact with Malaysia's own economy and geography. The three strategic resources of water, food and energy are highly interconnected, and a disruption in one causes a ripple effect across the others.

The Nexus as a Security Question

The military audience grasped this global picture immediately. They understood that drought upstream in the Mekong or the Hindu-Kush basins can ripple downstream into food insecurity, which could eventually lead to social unrest and migration. A disruption in energy supply is not only an economic issue but also a threat to national defence. Damming rivers can jeopardise fisheries and agriculture, increasing discontent and, in extreme cases, causing interstate tensions.

And the officers acknowledged climate change is no longer a hypothetical scenario. The strategists call it “threat multipliers”. Scarcity and shocks, when layered upon existing grievances, can destabilise societies faster than conventional warfare. As defence analyst Michael T. Klare remarked, hunger and water shortages have toppled regimes more quickly than armed divisions.

Lessons from the Region

In Southeast Asia, the nexus is already a geopolitical issue. Hydropower dams on the Mekong raise concerns among downstream countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam. Fisheries in Lake Tonle Sap, for example, support millions, but many fishermen there have lost income as fish stocks decline due to the decline of the lake's ecosystem health. Indonesia’s biofuel ambitions as an energy source create trade-offs with food crops.

Some, like Singapore, however, turn risks into opportunities. Long reliant on water imports, the island state has transformed vulnerability into strength through innovation in water recycling and desalination.

The lesson is that governance often matters more than physical distribution. The future of resource security will depend on cooperation and the ability to manage trade-offs. For Southeast Asia, nestled in a space of shared rivers and contested markets, the water–food–energy nexus must be treated as a matter of regional resilience.

Four Mindset Shifts

I suggested four mindset shifts that apply equally to generals and policymakers:

1.    See the System. Understand cascading risks across climate, food, energy, finance, and geopolitics. Rice is more than food; rather, it is embodied water, energy, and stability.

2.    Expand the Time Horizon. Think beyond 5-year planning or electoral cycles. Use foresight, wargaming, and scenario planning to prepare for long-tail disruptions.

3.    Bridge Silos. Ministries, agencies, and even nations cannot act in isolation. Integrated planning is the only way to manage systemic risk.

4.    Redefine Resilience. True resilience is not just bouncing back after a crisis, but adapting forward, building capacities that secure long-term stability.

Strategy and Statesmanship

The National Resilience Centre’s motto is Nurturing Strategic Thinkers of Statesman’s Quality. It serves as a fitting reminder for effective resource management. Resource security is not just about managing scarcity. More importantly, it involves cultivating strategy and statesmanship. The officers present embodied this ethos, thinking beyond tactical advantage to the long-term resilience of nations.

Civilian leaders would do well to embrace the same approach. Too often, sustainability debates are fragmented into technical silos or reactive crisis management. What is needed is statesmanship: the ability to anticipate, integrate, and act with foresight.

Malaysia has laid down essential policy frameworks such as the National Energy Transition Roadmap and the Climate Change Act (to be tabled in the Dewan Rakyat). Yet the nexus perspective demands integration across these domains. We need data systems that track flows of water, food, and energy. We need governance mechanisms that cut across ministries and borders. And above all, we need leadership that sees resilience as a strategy.

Rethinking Resilience

As my session ended, I was struck by how naturally military minds think in terms of preparedness and system-wide security. Their questions demonstrated a deep understanding of the stakes. For them, the nexus is not merely an academic concept, but a strategic reality.

The phrase I left with bears repeating: resilience is strategy. And in line with the College’s motto, nurturing strategic thinkers of statesman’s calibre is the only way forward. For Malaysia, and indeed for the region, the security of tomorrow will be shaped not only by armed might but also by the stewardship of water, food, and energy.

With Commandant Major General Dato' Abdul Karim Ahmad, Maj Gen (R) Dato' Abdul Rahim, and Colonel Dr Nor Azrin at the National Resilience College, PUSPAHANAS, Putrajaya.